Rapid Experiment

Test your riskiest assumption before you build anything.

Every business model is a stack of assumptions. Some are high-risk: if wrong, they kill the idea. Others are low-risk: wrong or right, the idea survives. A Rapid Experiment targets the highest-risk assumption and tests it as cheaply as possible — before you build, before you fundraise, before you commit. The goal is not proof. The goal is evidence.

Download / Print PDF Try it in The Studio → Learn more about this tool →

How to run this

  1. List 5–8 assumptions embedded in your idea.
  2. Score each on Confidence (how sure are you?) and Consequence (how fatal if wrong?).
  3. Target the assumption with lowest Confidence × highest Consequence.
  4. Design the cheapest experiment that would give you real evidence.
  5. Set your pass/fail threshold before you run it.

Rapid Experiment

Eric Ries · The Lean Startup · 2011 · Javelin Experiment Board
The Studio · Wade Institute of Entrepreneurship
The Idea
Assumption Inventory
List 5–8 assumptions baked into your idea. Be specific — not "people will like it."
Risk Matrix
Score each assumption: Confidence (High/Med/Low) × Consequence (High/Med/Low). Circle the Low Confidence + High Consequence cell.
ASSUMPTION
CONFIDENCE
CONSEQUENCE
Chosen Assumption
The one to test first — lowest confidence, highest consequence.
Experiment Design
What's the cheapest test? Describe the method.
Sample
Who will you test with? How many? How will you reach them?
Success Metric
Pass threshold — set before you see data.
Timeline
When will you have results?
First Step
What will you do today?
Common mistake

Designing experiments that can only confirm. A test that can't fail is not a test — it's theatre. Your success metric must be set before you see the data.

What good looks like

An experiment that runs in under a week and costs under $500. If your minimum viable test takes 3 months, you're not testing an assumption — you're building a product.

When to move on

When you've run the experiment, read the data honestly, and can say whether the assumption held or broke — and what you'll do differently as a result.

Try it interactively with WAiDE

WAiDE will help you surface your assumptions, rank them by risk, and design the cheapest possible test. You'll leave with an experiment you can run this week and a session report.

Start Rapid Experiment with WAiDE →

More canvases

Browse all 24 canvases →