Pre-Mortem

Imagine it failed. Work backwards to find out why.

A Pre-Mortem runs the failure scenario before launch. You assume the project has already failed — catastrophically — and work backwards to name the causes. This bypasses the optimism bias that kills most risk assessments. People say things in a pre-mortem they won't say in a status meeting.

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How to run this

  1. State clearly what you're about to commit to or launch.
  2. Assume it's 12 months from now and the project has failed badly.
  3. Fill in each risk category — what caused this type of failure?
  4. Score each risk: High/Medium/Low for likelihood and for consequence.
  5. Identify your top 2 mitigations — specific actions, not general caution.

Pre-Mortem

Gary Klein · Performing a Project Pre-Mortem · Harvard Business Review · 2007
The Studio · Wade Institute of Entrepreneurship
The Idea / Project / Decision
What are you about to commit to? State it clearly. Assume it is 12 months from now and it has failed badly. What went wrong?
① RISK CATEGORY
Market Risk
The market didn't behave as expected. Customers didn't want it. The need wasn't real.
Likelihood: H / M / LConsequence: H / M / L
② RISK CATEGORY
Product Risk
The product didn't work as expected. Technical issues, UX failures, or missing key features.
Likelihood: H / M / LConsequence: H / M / L
③ RISK CATEGORY
Execution Risk
The team couldn't deliver. Timeline, resources, process, or coordination broke down.
Likelihood: H / M / LConsequence: H / M / L
④ RISK CATEGORY
Team / People Risk
Key people left, disagreed, burned out, or were never really aligned.
Likelihood: H / M / LConsequence: H / M / L
⑤ RISK CATEGORY
Competition Risk
A competitor moved faster, better-funded, or already did this without us noticing.
Likelihood: H / M / LConsequence: H / M / L
⑥ RISK CATEGORY
Timing Risk
We were too early, too late, or the context shifted in a way we didn't anticipate.
Likelihood: H / M / LConsequence: H / M / L
⑦
Biggest Risk
The one that keeps you up at night. Name it honestly.
⑧
Mitigations
2–3 specific actions: "By [date], [person] will [action]." Not "be more careful."

Project: __________________________________    Date: _____________    Biggest risk: ____________________

Common mistake

Rating every risk as Medium/Medium. Force at least one High/High rating. If there isn't one, you haven't been honest about what could go wrong.

What good looks like

A risk that someone has been thinking about privately but hasn't said out loud. Pre-mortems surface the unsaid. That's their whole value.

When to move on

When you have a clear Biggest Risk with a specific mitigation plan — not "be careful about this" but "by [date], [person] will [action]."

Try it interactively with WAiDE

WAiDE will guide you through the failure scenario — asking the questions that surface the risks people usually leave unsaid. You'll leave with a clear risk map and a session report.

Start Pre-Mortem with WAiDE →

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