Theory of Change
Connect what you do to the change you want to see.
A Theory of Change is a logic model that makes your impact strategy explicit — tracing the chain from resources and activities through to outputs, outcomes, and the long-term change you're working toward. It forces you to surface the assumptions that hold your model together. Used in social enterprise, philanthropy, and systems change work, it's equally powerful for any venture trying to be clear about how and why its activities produce results in the world.
How to run this
- Start with Impact: define the long-term change you want to see in the world.
- Work backwards: what outcomes lead to that impact? What outputs produce those outcomes?
- Map your activities — the work you actually do — and the inputs that enable them.
- Surface assumptions: what must be true at each step for the chain to hold?
- Test the chain: could a sceptic break any link? Where is your evidence weakest?
Theory of Change
Carol Weiss · 1995 · W.K. Kellogg Foundation Logic Model · adapted for venturesConfusing outputs with outcomes. Outputs are what you produce — outcomes are what changes. "100 people trained" is an output; "graduates earning 30% more" is an outcome.
Each assumption is explicitly named and testable — not just implied. The weakest assumption is the highest-priority thing to validate before scaling.
When you can trace a clear causal chain from your resources to your impact statement, and name the evidence you'd need to prove each link.
Try it interactively with WAiDE
WAiDE will help you trace the logic chain from your inputs to your impact and surface the assumptions holding your model together. You'll leave with a theory of change and a session report.